How Shane Bieber’s health could be shaping Blue Jays’ plans

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ORLANDO, Fla. — At the time, the decision Shane Bieber made to exercise his player option and remain with the Blue Jays for 2026 was met with elation by the team’s fans and some head-scratching around baseball, wondering why the veteran cemented his plans so quickly.

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Was the afterglow of the Jays’ amazing World Series run that powerful to make Bieber leave money on the table to return on a one-year deal? Was he banking on himself to further enhance his free-agency status a year down the road?

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Turns out — as is often the case — there is more to the story.

Jays general manager Ross Atkins hinted at concern when he spoke at the Winter Meetings, which wrap up here on Wednesday, when he noted that there is “potential of (Bieber) not being 100% at the very start,” of the 2026 season.

“We’ll be cognizant and make sure that we are doing everything we can to keep putting him in the most safe position possible,” Atkins said. “We’re taking it kind of a week at a time at this point with Shane.”

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Atkins didn’t elaborate on the reasons for the team’s cautious approach with respect to Bieber, but suggested there were some physical concerns at the end of the 2025 season that merited attention.

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With that in mind, how the 30-year-old progresses through the remainder of the winter and how he feels when pitchers and catchers report to Dunedin for spring training in early February will tell a lot.

For now, at least, being ready to be prominent in the rotation at the start of the season is the plan.

“I think that is a very realistic outcome,” Atkins said when asked if the team expects Bieber to be ready for opening day. “But all the things that I said (about his health) kind of taking it week to week.”

Did Bieber’s health affect his decision?

Given the fact that he made a successful return from Tommy John surgery to pitch with the Jays down the stretch and into the post-season, it appeared that Bieber was poised to cash in via free agency this winter.

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Instead, he exercised his one-year option at $16 million US to remain with the Jays, potentially leaving millions on the table in a long-term deal he likely would have fetched on the open market.

Was health a part of that decision? Potentially, given Atkins description of the wear and tear Bieber went through in his abbreviated but impressive 2025 work, in which he had a 3.57 ERA through seven regular-season starts and a 3.86 ERA in his five playoff appearances.

What are the health concerns?

The Athletic detailed the potential issue with Bieber’s valuable right arm, reporting the specifics of what Atkins hinted at — that the former Cy Young Award winner was hampered by forearm fatigue.

While declining to go into detail, Atkins was revealing enough in describing Bieber’s condition prior to the Athletic reporting.

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“He pitched a lot and it’s remarkable if you think about coming off the procedure (Tommy John surgery in 2024), the magnitude of the innings, the magnitude of when he were competing and who we were competing against and how stressful that was for him is remarkable,” the GM said.

What that means for the start of 2026 remains to be seen. As cautious as he was in his wording, Atkins said that Bieber doesn’t need any medical procedures.

“No, as of right now he’s in a strong position,” Atkins said. “I suppose as he starts to ramp up, we could consider some stagger and the potential of him not being (ready for a full workload as the start of the season.)”

On the rest of the rotation — and Trey Yesavage

Given the uncertainty of starting position and the never-ending quest for depth, Bieber’s status isn’t the reason the Jays have aggressively added arms this winter — but it doesn’t hurt.

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Adding Dylan Cease to the giant seven-year, $210-million US deal was a big, bold move to start the off-season and the Jays are quietly enthused with Cody Ponce, whose signing should become official once he clears a few administration details required for players shifting from the KBO back to North America.

Which brings us to last year’s rookie sensation, Trey Yesavage.

After managing the 22-year-old’s workload brilliantly through the season as he motored through all four levels of the minor leagues before making his MLB debut in September, the Jays will be mindful of at least monitoring him in 2026.

“Every month matters just as every day mattered (last season),” Atkins said. “If you think of how much his career changed in a month and half and what the trajectory and expectations are. Want to manage that the best way possible. We feel he has a good foundation and someone we don’t have to proactively limit.

“We’re certainly planning for him to be a significant part of our team.”

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