Liberal deal flipping MP Michael Ma raises stakes for Poilievre

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The deal to have Conservative MP Michael Ma cross the floor to become a Liberal MP was brokered by Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson.

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News of the move was kept to a tight inner circle up until the announcement was made — with Ma’s staff not even knowing.

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On Thursday evening, just after 6 p.m., an email blast went out to the media from the Liberal Party announcing Ma would join Carney’s caucus. A short time later he was introduced on stage at the Liberal Christmas party.

“Wow, what a big welcome,” Ma said as Liberal MPs and staffers stood to clap, cheer and howl.

“All I want to say is Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a great 2026 coming to all of you.”

Liberals boast that more may cross floor

If the rumours and boasting by Liberals are true, Mark Carney will be having a great 2026 and Pierre Poilievre will not.

“We’re getting one more for sure, possibly two,” said one Liberal convinced the party will have a majority shortly.

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Right now, the Liberals are one seat away from forming a majority government. The movement of any further Conservative MPs over to the Liberals would give Carney the ability to govern freely for another three-plus years and seal the fate of  Poilievre.

Liberals been courting Tory MPs for months

As they have been doing for months, the Liberals continue to court any MP who will listen. Clearly, Michael Ma decided to listen when Tim Hodgson came calling.

Hodgson represents the riding of Markham-Thornhill, immediately south of Ma’s riding of Markham-Unionville. In addition to seeing each other at community events, the two men also have a big business connection having worked at the executive level at major companies.

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Still, Ma’s move was a surprise.

“I didn’t see it coming,” said one Conservative MP who had watched Ma dance up a storm with his wife at the Conservative Party of Canada’s Christmas party the night before.

Maybe the Liberals have better hors d’œuvres at their bashes.

“I have concluded that Prime Minister Mark Carney is offering the steady, practical approach we need to deliver on the priorities I hear every day while door knocking in Markham–Unionville,” Ma said in his statement.

Door knocking isn’t what got Ma to move over to the Liberals and, in time, the full story will come out. This was a man who had been active in Conservative circles for some time, had donated to the party, and ran as a candidate in 2019 in the riding of Don Valley East, losing to Liberal Yasmin Ratansi.

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Poilievre faces growing caucus turmoil

While Carney and his team were all smiles Thursday night and were still glowing Friday morning, the same can’t be said of Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives. Poilievre clearly has a caucus management problem: He’s lost three MPs now – two to floor crossing and one to a resignation.

If he loses one more, if Carney gets his majority, it is highly doubtful that he will survive the leadership review in January.

It’s one thing to say that you lost the election while at the same time increasing the number of votes and the percentage of the vote. To grant Carney a majority because you were unable to keep your caucus happy and together would be a death knell for Poilievre’s leadership.

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Partisans will attempt to put all of this on Carney: On corruption, on Chinese election interference, but part of it has to do with how Poilievre is managing his caucus.

And even if the party base were to reward him with a ringing endorsement, Poilievre’s ability to accomplish anything in Parliament would be limited by a disinterested and disaffected caucus.

There are roughly 45 days until the Conservative Party convention and leadership review in Calgary. These will be some of the most intense days of Poilievre’s political career as he tries to save his leadership and hold his party together.

blilley@postmedia.com

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