Mark Carney latest PM to promise impossible climate targets

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Prior to the budget vote this week, under questioning from Green Leader Elizabeth May, Prime Minister Mark Carney declared, “I can confirm to this House that we will respect our Paris commitments for climate change and we’re determined to achieve them.”

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Carney thus becomes the latest prime minister going back to Brian Mulroney to pledge to meet an impossible-to-achieve target in reducing Canada’s annual emissions of industrial greenhouse gases.

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The Paris commitment Carney referred to is the Liberals’ pledge to the United Nations to reduce Canada’s emissions to at least 40% below 2005 levels by 2030.

The Liberals, after a decade in power, are so far behind this target that no one who has looked at the government’s own data — including the Canadian Climate Institute and the Trottier Energy Institute at Polytechnique Montréal — seriously believes Carney’s claim.

At best, they say the actual cut will be barely half that.

Emission targets deliberately misleading?

In the real world, Carney’s pledge is utter nonsense and deliberately misleads the public. In fact, no Canadian government, Liberal or Conservative going back almost four decades, has ever hit a single emission target it set for itself.

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To wit:

— In 1988, then PM Brian Mulroney set a target of reducing Canada’s emissions to 20% below 1988 levels by 2005.

Canada’s emissions in 1988 were 588 million tonnes, making the 2005 target 470 million tonnes. In 2005, Canada’s emissions were 759 million tonnes, missing Mulroney’s target by 289 million tonnes.

— In 1990, Mulroney set a new target of stabilizing Canada’s emissions at 1990 levels by 2000.

Canada’s emissions in 1990 were 606 million tonnes. In 2000, 746 million tonnes.

— In 1993, PM Jean Chretien revived Mulroney’s target of reducing emissions to 20% below 1988 levels by 2005.

As previously noted, Canada’s emissions in 2005 were 289 million tonnes above the Chretien/Mulroney target.

— In 1998, Chretien signed the Kyoto Protocol to reduce emissions to an average of 6% below 1990 levels from 2008 to 2012.

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Canada’s emissions in 1990 were 606 million tonnes, making the 2012 target 570 million tonnes. Canada’s emissions in 2012 were 741 million tonnes.

In 2007, after the Liberals were out of power, Chretien’s top political aid Eddie Goldenberg acknowledged that when Chretien made the commitment, the Liberals knew it was unachievable and that it was an aspirational one.

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New targets, same old story

— In 2010, PM Stephen Harper set a new target of reducing Canada’s emissions to 17% below 2005 levels by 2020.

Canada’s emissions in 2005 were 759 million tonnes, making the 2020 target 630 million tonnes. In 2020, Canada’s emissions were 682 million tonnes.

— In 2015, Harper set a new target to reduce Canada’s emissions to 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.

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Canada’s emissions in 2005 were 759 million tonnes, making the 2030 target 531 million tonnes. Canada’s emissions as of 2024 — the latest data available — were 694 million tonnes.

— After being elected in 2015, PM Justin Trudeau set targets of reducing emissions to 20% below 2005 levels in 2026, at least 40% below in 2030, at least 45% below in 2035 and net zero in 2050.

These are also Carney’s current emission targets.

Canada’s emissions in 2005 were 759 million tonnes, making the 2026 target 607 million tonnes. According to the latest data available from 2024, Canada’s emissions were 694 million tonnes.

To meet the Carney-Trudeau target for next year, Canada would have to reduce emissions by 87 million tonnes, the equivalent of wiping out all emissions from Canada’s buildings sector in one year.

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